Tech entrepreneur Mark Cuban has some interesting ideas about the future of high-definition video, distribution, revenue streams and gadgets--and unlike many other "visionaries," he seems to know what he's talking about.
Cuban has posted a lengthy blog item, in which he argues that DVDs' days are numbered, as hard and flash drives continue to surge in capacity and plunge in price. In one scenario, Cuban describes how consumers may use kiosks to download movies onto portable drives for viewing at home or on the road. Another scenario: "There is also the Netflix rental approach that could work as well. Pay 100 bucks for the first 200GB external drive. Pay us 20 bucks a month, and we send you a new drive with the new goodies, and you send us back the one you just watched--easy and breezy."
His basic argument is that high-definition videos are so bulky that consumers will opt for a medium that can hold a lot of content, and at about 9 gigabytes, the new DVD technology won't be enough. Considering how the iPod has almost single-handedly doomed the CD, it's hard to argue with him. The key difference between music and video files, however, is size. And that will make online piracy (a la Napster) less of a threat but also restrict video-on-demand services--if you assume that compression technology and download speeds won't substantially improve.
You may not agree with his conclusions, but it is a well-reasoned paper that shows that Cuban is into this stuff. That's no surprise, considering that he is no tech neophyte or one-hit wonder. In 1983, he started a company called MicroSolutions, a systems integrator that grossed about $30 million a year when it was acquired by CompuServe in 1990. A few years later, he founded Audionet, later renamed Broadcast.com, which he sold to Yahoo for $5.7 billion.
More recently, Cuban has backed search companies IceRocket and Mama.com. He's now involved with HDNet, an all-HDTV network, and owns the Dallas Mavericks pro basketball team.