Apple surprised us in February this year by launching a new entry-level iPhone ahead of schedule. The iPhone 16E is full of most of the things people want in an iPhone and hosts many features of the iPhone 16. But while it's entry-level, it's not low-cost. It's sort of a weird middle ground. What's next for Apple's low-end tech? It could be the iPad.
As I wait for a new entry-level iPad, likely coming in the next month or so, to replace Apple's 10th-gen iPad base model, I'm encouraged and concerned that Apple will follow a similar path as the 16E. Actually, it seems inevitable. But maybe I'm wrong.
The 10th-gen iPad, released all the way back in 2022, finally introduced most of the features of the more expensive iPads: Slimmer bezels around the display, better cameras and a new way to connect keyboards. But it came with a price increase. The 10th-gen iPad cuts some corners, but it's the best value iPad pick. At the time, however, it was a shift away from what had been a tradition of $300-range entry iPads. Apple addressed this by dropping the 10th-gen iPad price back to $350 -- a year and a half later.
But maybe the iPhone's price bump isn't an indicator of an iPad price bump. There's even a chance Apple's new C1 modem could lead to a lower-cost cellular option.Â
"The iPhone 16E, in my opinion, is a different phone than the SE, so the price bump does not mean other products will follow," said Carolina Milanesi, president and principal analyst for Creative Strategies. "It might be actually interesting to see if the iPad with cellular gets the C1 or derivative and it costs less than the $100 difference we have seen historically."
Could the entry iPad be like last year's iPad Mini?
The 11th-gen iPad, or whatever it's called, already has a clear template laid out. Look at the iPad Mini released last fall or the latest iPhone 16E. Apple Intelligence, a collection of scattershot AI features across Apple's software, is clearly a dividing line for where old processors miss the mark and new ones can get cut into future AI features in OS updates to come. The rest of Apple's iPad lineup can run Apple Intelligence, but not the entry-level 10th-gen iPad. Expect that to be a centerpiece of the change.
The iPad Mini also worked with newer Apple Pencils, a move Apple might (and should) finally adopt for the entry iPad. The Pencil Pro has a lot of great extras, although that "pro" marketing tag could mean the entry iPad still gets left out.
One thing the entry-level iPad might still lack is an M-series chip. The iPad Mini has an A17 Pro processor, a phone chip instead of the M-series processors the rest of Apple's Mac and iPad Air/Pro lineup have. An 11th-gen iPad could see a similar chip bump replacing the old A14 Bionic on the 10th-gen. The A17 Pro can get the iPad into Apple Intelligence compatibility without spending up to add an M chip.
The iPhone 16E, however, also adds another wrinkle I'd love to see on iPads: a new C1 modem that could possibly be more power-efficient (or, as Mllanesi suggests, more affordable). The iPhone 16E has better battery life than the iPhone 16. Maybe an iPad 11th-gen model with optional C1 cellular could have better battery life, too.
The iPad Mini's update last year is likely a sign of what to expect from the next entry iPad: Improved processor, perhaps better Pencil support.
But at what cost? The iPhone 16E bumped its price beyond what previous iPhone SE models cost, starting at $599 instead of the $429 that the SE was introduced at in 2022. The best part of entry-level iPads is their relatively long product lifespans and cost. They're kid and family iPads: Useful to have and not too wildly expensive to replace. What happens if the entry iPad shifts up to the $500-plus range? It wouldn't be a surprise in this economy, two-plus years after the 10th-gen iPad. But I wouldn't be happy about it.
Will new iPad Airs be coming with chip bumps, too?
It also raises deeper questions about what makes an entry-level iPad different than the midrange iPad Air, last updated a year ago alongside the M4-equipped iPad Pro. Reports suggest Apple could update both product lines this spring, and I wonder if the differences -- and price range -- will become too subtle to make sense. Could Apple just fuse the Air and base iPads into one product? It already feels like there are one too many iPad models to keep track of. Then again, Apple seems fine right now, selling an iPhone 16E at $599 and a slightly fuller-featured iPhone 16 for just $200 more. Incrementalism rules the Apple product lineup.
A new iPad Air would likely just get a chip bump from the M2 to M3, which would still be less than what the iPad Pro has (M4). But would that be meaningful enough to convince anyone to upgrade, or would it just be yearly chip-bump housekeeping similar to what Apple does with the Macs? As much as I'd like fewer iPads cluttering the lineup, everything Apple currently does suggests a continuation of a multidevice spectrum that keeps climbing $100 to $200 per tier from low-end to high.
Curious about how the prices will land
The concern is the possibly higher starting point. Climbing above $500 feels like the point at which an iPad is no longer affordable for many, although the first iPad was $500 at its start. Then again, more expensive new iPads would also drive people to bargain shop for older models, which are often found on sale.
When I reviewed the iPad Mini last fall, I said its features were exactly what I wanted on a new entry-level iPad. The price, however, wasn't something I was wild about. iPads do a ton, and I acknowledge they're great computers for lots of people, but they're also, stubbornly, not the same thing as Macs. I expect these exact feelings to return when the next iPads are announced. And I expect whatever that entry-level iPad turns out to be will make it the best iPad option for most people. But be prepared for a price bump, based on everything we're seeing with Apple's iPhone strategy. And if that happens, will we be OK with it?