Technological advances and growing consumer demand are driving thedevelopment of more and more sophisticated wireless telephones. Wireless telephones are taking on more of the features and functions of PCs--butthey'll never completely replace the PC.
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Consumer interest in added services--and in using wireless telephones forcommunications other than voice--is rising, too. The tremendous success oftext messaging in Europe and Japan, and the growing use of wireless e-mailin the business market--with devices like the RIM BlackBerry pager--pointsto the potential for a huge market.
Nonetheless, despite the convergence of advanced technology and growingdemand, few North American wireless users are performing traditional PCfunctions on their wireless telephones. There are good reasons for this. Oneof the most important is the limitations of the available wirelessinput/output devices--especially small, hard-to-see screens and clumsykeyboards.
PCs and wireless telephones are different tools for different jobs. In somecases, a wireless phone is better suited than the PC for a particular task,but other tasks will always be better served by the PC. Another problem isthat it is extremely difficult to translate many PC applications to handheldplatforms and devices. Microsoft Word on a wireless device is no longerMicrosoft Word.
Beyond the technological issues, however, lies an even more basic problem:lack of compelling services that would entice wireless telephone owners touse--and, just as important, pay for--a broader range of wireless services.The absence of appealing services has obstructed even the most basicwireless "PC" functionality, text messaging, in the North American market.
The wireless carriers, anxious to protect their valuable customer bases,have made it virtually impossible to offer open text messaging across othercarriers' systems. The result: Even this simplest form ofcommunication--hugely popular in Europe and Japan--has yet to reach the breakthrough point in the United States and Canada.
Until wireless text messaging reaches critical mass, the adoption of moreadvanced wireless functions and services will remain a distant dream--atleast in North America. This functionality may gain acceptance faster inthe developing world, where it may offer a more affordable alternative to PCs.
To make any of this happen, wireless service providers will have to deliverwhat Gartner calls the mobile equation: immediacy times mobility minusinconvenience. That means anywhere/anytime data--the right data--deliveredin an accessible, easy-to-use fashion. The providers are nowhere neardelivering on that equation. That's why nobody should be throwing away theirPCs anytime soon.
(For a related commentary, on the new BlackBerry 5810, see gartner.com.)
Entire contents, Copyright © 2002 Gartner, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein represents Gartner's initial commentary and analysis and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Positions taken are subject to change as more information becomes available and further analysis is undertaken. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of the information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof.